Watching the Express Entry draws has become my new favorite pastime, and I’ve been monitoring the data much the way that baseball fanatics track player stats. As a data scientist, I have been trained to try to use data to understand the world, and this is a perfect use case, where I have clean and organized data but a messy and opaque process, in which I care less about explaining what has happened in past and more about predicting what will happen in the future.
In the eight draws that have taken place since the Express Entry system essentially reopened in July, the minimum CRS scores have steadily (though not linearly) decreased, and with each draw the number of invitations has increased. It seems clear at this point that the number of invitations is being issued on a regular two-week schedule and increased by a set number with each draw; the minimum score is simply determined by the number of invitations. The first four draws increased by 250 invitations each, while the last four increased by 500 invitations each. The next one could increase by another 500 (as I have projected below), or maybe it will be 750, or 1000. Hard to say!
I’ve also been watching the Express Entry pool data, as its numbers get drawn down with each round of invitations and increase with new applicants. In the latest data, the top-scoring group in the pool (those with scores higher than 600, the Provincial Nominees) grew by about 1,000 new applicants. But the next group (those with scores between 500 and 600) decreased significantly - even with about 1,800 new applicants, it dropped from 4,411 to 2,785 due to the number of invitations issued. Going into the next draw, I am now in the top 10,000 - I estimate somewhere around #6500. That means if the next draw includes 4,750 applicants as I have projected above, I won’t be included - but if it includes more applicants, or if I am closer to the top than I think, I might be.
In the end, whether we are invited in two weeks or a month won’t make any real difference - but that moment will be an exciting milestone in our lives. Then the next set of optimizations will be around the PR application process: once invited, applicants have 90 days to submit all their paperwork, and I have been working closely with my immigration attorney to make sure mine is ready to submit on the day that I am invited. I hope this will help me to jump ahead in the queue (“budging” is what Canadian kids call cutting in line!).
To be continued…